Mean rating deflation

@cameodemon said in #8:
> is it possible there is an influx of old players making new accounts?
Any explanation should give a reason, why this happened during the last year. So why should there have been an influx of old players in 2022, but not in 2021?

There was less internet users in 2021 than today. The rise is slowing down.
www.oberlo.ca/statistics/how-many-people-use-internet
If the rise is slowing down, then maybe there will be the same type of rise in players joining a website.

One algorithm is not enough to see the full picture. An engine that cannot solve a fortress does not see the full picture. So maybe it needs to broaden the candidate moves a bit more to see the full picture too.

The comprehension of what is happening and the harmony of everything else needs to work together. Only comprehension and harmony can clear the air and reduce confusions and wrong assessments.

The rating is to pair people and the pairing is done with pairings similar to our own. For a rating to increase one must lower. But the amounts that one goes up compared to what goes down is not the same. The end result is ratings will either increase or decrease in value. If only chess had a max peak rating and everything else must go down if one person or engine reaches that rating. No two players should ever be considered equally skilled or rated with the same number. But we have players that have the same rating. We are all unique and different.

If a person learns something new in chess and uses it, it still does not guarantee the rating will increase. The rating only changes because you won or drew or lost against another person, for what ever reason. An opening and a rating is affected by two players at a time. It's the choices that two players make that makes the difference. So maybe in 2022 players view about chess has changed. That's like saying we played too fast in 2022 compared to 2021. Now you have to prove that statement. If it's true, than it too needs to be included in the formula which will add more weight to the subject title.

If a white wall has a black spot on it and you are only permitted to see the black spot. Then all you see is a black wall. That's a statistic formula that does not include the full picture. The need to know makes us see only what others want us to see and nothing else.

It could be due to the fact that the player spike from Covid/Queens Gambit has diminished. Those players who dabbled in chess left the site, and the ones that remain are stronger on average and just steal rating from each other.

It could be or could it be .... ?? The fact ??? What fact ?? Where's the proof to that so called posted fact that you are talking about? @greysensei

Exactly which Queen Gambit are you assuming is diminishing in popularity?
lichess.org/opening?q=D26
lichess.org/opening?q=D37

I started out with 2000 then went to 1400-1600

@Toscani said in #14:
> It could be or could it be .... ?? The fact ??? What fact ??

Here's a graph demonstrating this 'fact' www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/tdvcb0/growth_of_lichessorg_by_number_of_chess_games/

It would be interesting to see what's happened in the last year.

I was much better a few years ago 1900 at 1/4s, and now I can't get above 1650( I had a break tho). I really think 1/4 had the biggest drop. Look at @penguingm1 for example. He dropped 400-600 points. lichess.org/@/penguingim1/perf/ultraBullet
And he never stopped playing? (he is top 1)

Yes i think the people lower rated got alot better usally I would relax playing some 2100s but now they are so fast even faster then me its crazy I have to focus playing 2100s in bullet they feel like old 2300s

@v_u said in #17:
> I was much better a few years ago 1900 at 1/4s, and now I can't get above 1650( I had a break tho). I really think 1/4 had the biggest drop. Look at @penguingm1 for example. He dropped 400-600 points. lichess.org/@/penguingim1/perf/ultraBullet
> And he never stopped playing? (he is top 1)

Ub dropped so much because the rating change years ago u could get +10 most of the times but now u barely get +4 also its hard to win lots of games in a row in UB with people ur skill level because more then likely your hands would get tired

@v_u said in #17:
> Look at @penguingm1 for example. He dropped 400-600 points. lichess.org/@/penguingim1/perf/ultraBullet
> And he never stopped playing? (he is top 1)

I'm amazed that's dropped so much. Can that only be because of few ultrabullet players in the pool? Or has some other adjustment gone on here?